US-Iran War Image:Republic
President Donald Trump is ending the third week of the Iran war with a crisis that appears to be out of his hands. Global energy prices are rising, the US is isolated from its allies and is preparing to deploy more troops, despite promising that the war will be only a short trip.
Defensively, Trump called other NATO countries “cowards” for refusing to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and insisted the campaign was going as planned. But his declaration on Friday that the battle had been “militarily won” clashed with the reality that Iran has cut off Gulf oil and gas supplies and is launching missile attacks across the region.
Trump, who took office promising to steer the United States away from “stupid” military interventions, now appears to be in control of neither the outcome nor the message of the war he helped start. The absence of a clear exit strategy threatens both his presidential legacy and his party’s political prospects as Republicans struggle to preserve a slim majority in Congress in the November midterm elections.
Trump trapped in Chakravyuh?
Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for Republican and Democratic administrations, said, “Trump has created a box for himself called the Iran War, and he doesn’t understand how to get out of it. That’s his biggest source of frustration.”
A White House official challenged this view, in which several of Iran’s top leaders were killed in targeted killings, much of its navy was sunk and much of its ballistic missile arsenal was destroyed. “This has been a military success without any doubt,” the officer said.
Last week the limits of Trump’s power were clearly revealed. He was surprised by the opposition from fellow NATO members and other foreign partners to deploying their navies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, according to another White House official, who, like other officials Reuters spoke to for this story, declined to be named to discuss internal discussions.
‘The President does not want to appear isolated’
The president does not want to appear isolated, so some White House aides have advised Trump to quickly find an “off-ramp” and set limits on the scope of military operations, a person familiar with the discussions said. But it was not clear whether this argument was enough to convince Trump or not. According to some experts, the allies’ reluctance reflects not only his reluctance to engage in a war about which he was not consulted, but also a protest against his approach of undermining traditional US alliances since returning to office 14 months ago. Differences with Israel are also emerging, with Trump insisting that he had no prior knowledge of the Israeli attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field, while Israeli officials said that the attack was actually coordinated with the US.
Can Trump capture Kharg Island?
Experts say Trump now finds himself at a juncture in Operation Epic Fury where there is no clear indication of which path he will take. He could go all-out and escalate the US attack, perhaps even capturing Iran’s oil hub on Kharg Island or deploying troops off Iran’s coast to search for missile launchers. But that would risk a long-term military commitment, which the American public would largely oppose, or, with both sides refusing to negotiate now, Trump could declare victory and try to retreat, thereby alienating Gulf allies, leaving a wounded, hostile Iran that may still try to build a crude nuclear weapon and control shipping in the Gulf.
Iran has denied that it is trying to make nuclear weapons. The US military is deploying thousands more Marines and sailors to the Middle East, Reuters reported on Friday, although no decision has been made to send troops to Iran itself. This battle has also shown that the strong hold Trump once had on his MAGA movement is weakening, and well-known influencers are speaking out against the fight. Although his base has mostly been with him so far, experts say that if gas prices continue to rise and US troops are deployed, Trump’s control may weaken in the coming weeks.
Also read: Britain sided with US in Iran war while Russia openly supported Iran