The long-term consequences of the war in Iran are only beginning to emerge, but one thing is clear – the conflict has destabilized the Middle East, weakened alliances, and the world is facing unsettling shifts in the balance of economic and military power.
Iran’s religious authority may have weakened but is still intact, and it has also gained new economic influence. Elections are to be held in America and Israel this year. In such a situation, the leaders of these countries may have to face voters whose goals related to war have not been fulfilled.
The NATO alliance, which was already under strain, has now come under even greater pressure. The Arab countries of the Gulf are facing an even stronger and aggressive Iran in their own neighborhood.
Israeli PM’s stubborn attitude
If Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war performance were to be graded, he would get an “incomplete” grade. By the time fighting began on February 28, Netanyahu had set some very lofty goals. He had said that he wanted to eliminate the threats posed by Iran’s missile and nuclear programs, as well as stop Iran’s support for those opposition groups. He also promised that he would create an environment for a mass uprising against the Iranian government. But, none of these goals have been completely achieved.
In a new post, Netanyahu said that under my leadership, Israel will continue the fight against Iran’s terrorist regime and its henchmen. On the contrary, Erdogan provides them with aid and even massacres his own Kurdish citizens.
Iran is in a strong position
Iran, which had been badly weakened by nationwide protests in January and massive air strikes during the war, now suddenly finds itself in a stronger position.
Due to the threat of sea mines and possible attacks by Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, ships are staying away from the Strait of Hormuz. This simply means that this waterway, which is very important for the supply of energy at the international level, is actually closed.
Before the talks in Islamabad, the Iranian government has put forward some very strict and big demands. These demands also include continuing the work of enriching uranium as part of its nuclear program, and this was the main reason due to which Trump decided to wage war against Iran.
Devastation continues in Lebanon
In Lebanon, this regional war has caused huge devastation. Now that possibilities of ceasefire are emerging, this situation is raising more new questions than answers.
There are differences between the US and Israel over whether this ceasefire will also apply to the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran says the ceasefire will apply to that war as well; America and Israel say that this is not so.
Meanwhile, Lebanese and Israeli officials have agreed to begin direct talks; Lebanon hopes this will lead to a ceasefire, while Israel hopes it will lead to the disarmament of Hezbollah. Netanyahu said the talks would also include discussion on a possible peace agreement between the two countries. These two countries do not maintain any diplomatic relations with each other. Trump has repeatedly tested this 32-member alliance.
NATO also threatened
He halted direct U.S. military aid to Ukraine, threatened to take away the Arctic territory Greenland from NATO ally Denmark, and persuaded member states to spend more on defense. Now, his differences with NATO allies over Iran are raising new questions about whether the alliance, which was created as a solution to post-World War II instability, can survive.
Since the war began, Trump has mocked allies, calling them “cowards”, criticized NATO as a “paper tiger”, and compared British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to Neville Chamberlain, a former prime minister known for his appeasement policy toward Nazi Germany.
Trump is angry that member states ignored his appeals for help after Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz; At the same time, they are angry that coalition member states, Spain and France, have restricted the use of their airspace or joint military facilities to US forces assisting ongoing operations in Iran.
Maintaining the ceasefire may ultimately stabilize oil prices and financial markets, but it may take much longer to resolve the worldwide economic crisis, which could weigh on voters closer to election day.
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